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Statistically speaking, one out of every three new fall shows will return the following year for a second season. Now that we're officially one month in to this year's TV season, it's time to closely examine which shows will be the fortunate survivors this year. The five major networks premiered 21 new shows, which means approximately seven will get sophomore seasons.

There are already some clear front-runners, as four shows have been picked up for the full season, a good indicator that a second year will happen. The CW's 90210, Fox's Fringe, CBS's The Mentalist and NBC's Knight Rider are all guaranteed to get their full 22 episodes in this season, but will that be enough to keep them around for another? The answer is most likely yes. Here are my predictions for the seven new shows you can expect to see back on the schedule one year from now.

90210

The CW put all its eggs this season into this basket, and while ratings have slipped since its impressive debut, the CW desperately needs this young, fresh franchise. Shows like One Tree Hill and Smallville are in their twilight years, and Gossip Girl can't carry all the slack. In addition, the impending failure of the CW's Sunday night experiment is going to leave a giant hole in the network's schedule. The two big Sunday shows, Valentine and Easy Money, are now pulling in fewer than 750,000 viewers per episode, which is even lower than pay cable shows like Dexter.

Verdict: 90210 will definitely be back for another year and will probably run for 4-5 seasons.

Fringe

By ordering a full season early, Fox assured fans that they can become attached to the mystery of the show and not worry that it will be canceled before they get answers. While the ratings picked up after it got House as a lead-in, Fringe hasn't shown a clear ability to survive on its own. Fringe will probably get a second season just because Fox spent an arm and a leg getting the show in the first place.

Verdict: In season two, the mystery will become increasingly complex and surreal, losing even the most die-hard viewers, and it will collapse like a supernova, getting canceled at the end of the year.

The Mentalist

This is exactly what CBS loves: a by-the-books procedural that can run forever and get sold into syndication. With phenomenal numbers (aided by the titanic ratings of lead-in NCIS), I wouldn't be surprised if The Mentalist is among the very first shows CBS picks up for next year.

Verdict: A run of 6-8 seasons is not out of the question given how devoted the network is to crime procedurals.

Knight Rider

Though it has the full season, that doesn't guarantee a second year, especially if the ratings remain so tepid. However, the network clearly has confidence that Knight Rider can find an audience with its wacky storylines, intense car chases and attractive cast.

Verdict: NBC will pick it up for another season and try out several new nights and times. Eventually the network will forget that it's even on, allowing Knight Rider to coast for 3-4 seasons.

Life on Mars

ABC has seen remarkable critical and commercial success in the show's two short weeks. It's quite possible the network has finally found a show that can succeed after Grey's Anatomy, a time slot that has killed plenty of other shows like Big Shots, Six Degrees, October Road, Men in Trees, etc. Not only will a full season announcement come soon, but ABC will want to see if it can rebuild the cop genre like it did with medical and legal shows.

Verdict: The season one finale will answer viewers' questions about what's happening, leaving season two to transform into a more basic procedural. After some time, the show will fade into the sunset, getting canceled after three seasons.

Eleventh Hour

Much like The Mentalist, Eleventh Hour has two main things going for it: it's a crime procedural on CBS and it airs after a huge hit (CSI). Those elements, combined with Jerry Bruckheimer's name as an executive producer, make this British import destined for a long run.

Verdict: Eleventh Hour will move around next season, possibly filling the black hole between Ghost Whisperer and Numb3rs on Friday nights. Like Cold Case and Without a Trace, Eleventh Hour will never be a huge hit, but it will be allowed to exist for at least five seasons so it can reach the iconic 100 episode mark and go into syndication.

Stylista

Premiering tonight on the CW, this reality show with aspiring fashion editors is the perfect companion to America's Next Top Model. It's fun and silly with plenty of drama. The CW is a big fan of reality competition shows. If the Pussycat Dolls reality show got a second season, why wouldn't Stylista?

Verdict: With reality shows, it's always hard to tell, but fashion is very in. ANTM is in its eleventh cycle and Project Runway is on track to start season six, so Stylista will probably land somewhere between two and five seasons before vanishing without a trace.

For more news, opinions and exclusive video interviews check out BuddyTV's Fall 2008 Preview.

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