Confession time: I’ve become hopelessly addicted to this season (or cycle as they like to call it) of America’s Next Top Model. I mean, seriously, seriously addicted, as in a run home from work to watch it sort of addiction. Call it a model dependency problem.

Fortunately, the only side effect of this dirty little habit is the tendency to argue over which girl will win (and maybe a tendency to sometimes get the twins confused). I thought that Bravo’s Project Runway would have sated my need for a fashion fix, but it turns out that watching girls try to become top models (or, well, top print models, anyway) is much more fun than I had ever imagined.

So who are my favorites? That’s easy. Personally, I’m hoping this competition comes down to a final showdown between Melrose and Caridee, but don’t count out one of the twins making it to the final two either … anything can happen in this competition, especially after last week’s episode, which had reward winner Caridee nearly booted and sent home. So, which girls are left standing in this competition and what are their chances of winning? Let’s take a look.

First up has got to be Melrose, the girl that all the other ANTM girls love to hate. I can see why, when she’s winning nearly every competition and prize and usually being bestowed with heaps of praise by the judges. Rightfully so, however, as Melrose rocks it in her own inimitable style; with maybe one exception, her photo shoots are always amazing, producing exceptionally beautiful shots that are heightened by her acting skills. Melrose is able to very easily tap into her emotions during a shoot whilst still managing to draw attention to the product or fulfill the brief, something that can’t be said for a majority of the girls already sent home. Plus, she excels both in print and on the runway, presenting a walk and attitude that have both style and flair. It would have been an egregious error to make anyone but her the winner of last week’s commercial shoot for Secret deodorant in Barcelona. Melrose was completely natural, totally at ease, and above all confident in both the way she moved and her attempts to speak Catalan. (Did anyone notice the way she interacted with everyone in the commercial, from the kids who ran behind her to the male models?) Melrose is definitely the one to beat.

I can’t say enough great things about Caridee, who is definitely a contender, despite her abysmal performance in last week’s Secret commercial challenge. (I was concerned that Tyra and the judges would send her packing, but it was way past time for Jaeda to pack her clothes and go.) She’s stunningly beautiful and has the charisma and presence to even make it as a professional runway model after the season ends. Her silent movie was the only one that seemed to show any real acting chops, and she’s never afraid to look bad in order to fulfill a photo shoot brief (i.e., the elephant lady) or the judges’ whims (ahem, her half-hour “hiding dizzily” routine). If Caridee has one flaw, it’s her tendency to go too over the top, to make things nearly melodramatic in their intensity, and she doesn’t always listen to direction, even when safety is an issue (the skydiving training sequence, for example). Still, I think that if Caridee reins in her OTT tendencies and takes each and every challenge as seriously as possible, she could be in a good position to make it all the way to the end.

Ah, Eugena. I was really amazed that Eugena managed to stick around for as long as she did, but in recent weeks, she’s finally started to come alive a bit and get what the judges have been saying all along: her photos were vacant. Eugena has only now managed to inject some personality into her pics and make the judges see some semblance of emotion behind her normally vacuous expressions. Eugena’s photos are entirely flat and, if you look at her portfolio, she seems capable of making only one facial expression. Still, she has shown some fire (though her commitment to the competition and life as a model are in question), but I don’t think it’s enough to keep her around much longer. Unless one of the others really messes up in the next two episodes, I see Eugena possibly being the next to go.

Then there’s the twins. At first they really did seem interchangeable, but in recent weeks, they’ve managed to break through that feeling of them being identical to express themselves as individuals rather than a team of two. Seeing them outside of a photo shoot, it’s difficult to even think of them as models as their posture and body language does not scream professional; additionally, they seem more painfully average than anything else. But get them in front of a camera and suddenly they look like couture models come to life out of Vogue magazine. The transformation is remarkable.

Of the two, Amanda seems to want this so much more than her sister Michelle, who seems at times indifferent to the entire process. I think that the two of them are both so very young and lacking the life skills to really model professionally. While, yes, most models are seriously young (younger than the twins, in fact), they seem more preternaturally mature than these two do, and the twins often come across as awkward and shaky in uncomfortable situations (I’m thinking of the Fabio shoot, among others). If one of them was to be sent home, it would definitely be Michelle. I wouldn’t count Amanda out of the running yet (her photos tend to be stunning), but I can’t see her competing against Melrose and Caridee for the top prize.

Who do you think WILL take home the title of Top Model? And better yet, who do you think SHOULD walk off as the winner?

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Jace is an LA-based television development and acquisitions junior exec who watches way too much television for his own good and would love a TiVo for every room in the house. (He’s halfway there.) His blog, Televisionary, can be found at televisionary.blogspot.com.