Charlie Toft,
Mar 12, 2009
It's not the start of the American Idol season until predictions about who will win and who will leave in what order are posted. I made predictions after the auditions and after the top 36 were announced, based on limited information, but this is it: the absolute last time such picks can be made and still be taken seriously. True, I'm helped by the fact that the first two have already been bounced, but I'm new at this so I'm entitled to the handicap. Besides, I'm not going to be wrong from here on in. Seriously.
See the American Idol Season 8 contestants
Megan Joy Corkrey
Pros: She has an unusual jazz-inflected voice, which could help her score with fans of previous Idol wannabes who did not have the huge pipes. She's also very pretty, although this has not necessarily been a huge help in the past. The judges have been kinder to her than her performances merit.
Cons: Auditioned with a pre-rock standard and has struggled with more modern material. Her dancing is extremely odd and she appears to have little range and power. Her sleeve tattoo works against what is otherwise a fairly wholesome image.
Summary: Has not shown the artistic smarts that might make up for a weaker voice, and her quirkiness won't amount to much if people are laughing at her.
Will finish: Eleventh.
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Kris Allen
Pros: The biggest thing you can say in his favor is that he managed to get voted into the finals despite almost no exposure, and even though his semifinal effort won only so-so reviews. Being southern never hurts on Idol (he's from Conway, Ark.). He's good-looking, modest, and has the soul vibe that the judges and producers seem to want from their males this season, so long as they're white.
Cons: As a surprise finalist, the show doesn't have any particular investment in him, so he's going to have to be phenomenal every week to keep from getting buried.
Summary: The most anonymous finalist Idol has had in several years; it would be a miracle if he's still around in a month.
Will finish: Tenth.
Matt Giraud
Pros: He has displayed a nice soulful tone and had a Hollywood week effort behind the piano that was so good that it alone probably accounted for his being picked as one of the final 13. Playing an instrument worked to the benefit of everyone who did it last season.
Cons: He hasn't sounded nearly as good away from the piano and was fortunate to even get a callback for the wild card after a disastrous semifinal. He seems to be limited to material which he can infuse with blues-soul runs, because he does not have the prototypical big Idol voice.
Summary: Idol seems obsessed with getting its own Justin Timberlake, and while Matt is probably a better singer than Chris Richardson two seasons back, he faces much stronger male competition and his limitations will do him in before very long.
Will finish: Ninth.
Allison Iraheta
Pros: She's the first female rock singer on Idol who seems completely comfortable in that role, rather than just being placed in the rock box due to her appearance. The sound she displayed on "Alone" is one of the leading sounds in pop music today (see Pink, Katy Perry, and Clarkson's best singles), which has to be of interest to the producers. Despite being only 16, she has a substantial amount of performing experience and even has a reality competition show in her past (on Telemundo).
Cons: She's been relatively underexposed compared with the other four females on the show. Looks-wise, she doesn't fit the America's Sweetheart mold Idol prefers in its younger women. The more teenager-y aspects of her personality might strike some as too irreverent.
Summary: The hardest person to predict, because she has amazing raw talent and a very commercial sound. But teens have a track record for inconsistency on Idol, and so far we really only had the one great semifinal to go on. I wouldn't be shocked if she won, but it's safer to predict a flameout.
Will finish: Eighth.
Michael Sarver
Pros: Without a real country artist in this year's finals, the oil worker from southeast Texas could fill that niche by default, even though he hasn't actually done any country on the show yet. His blue-collar background might also catch on with Americans looking for a rags-to-riches tale in hard times. His status as a father (there haven't been many on Idol over the years) could help him as well. As for his voice? It was good enough for him to get voted through by America, though a rare endorsement by Simon Cowell couldn't have hurt.
Cons: There is nothing special about him. He's good-looking, but not overly; he's not going to dance or put on any sort of show; he's a white guy with soul in a season where most of the males fit that description.
Summary: The back-story, and Sarver's consistent okay-ness, could get him surprisingly far, but it's unlikely he can outlast any major contenders and unthinkable that he might win.
Will finish: Seventh.
Scott MacIntyre
Pros: He's received much attention for his visual impairment, including a choice closing spot on the first show of the season; his popularity and some misplaced political correctness has clearly made the judges wary of criticizing him in anything other than the mildest terms. As a pianist, he will appeal to that segment of the audience that sees the ability to play an instrument as a sign of artistic credibility.
Cons: His tenor voice, while not unpleasant, is also not especially noteworthy at this stage. He may not have the pipes to handle up-tempo material, and even if he did, his disability would make dancing an issue. While he isn't now seen as a major contender to win, if he starts outlasting the truly talented there is going to be a backlash from his kid glove treatment by the judges.
Summary: As a great story, it's no surprise he made it this far. But he's now up against some other good stories too, and most of them are better singers.
Will finish: Sixth.
Anoop Desai
Pros: It's Anoop's good fortune that many of his a cappella performances with his college group at North Carolina managed to make it onto the Internet, as it helped him build an early fan base -- you can hear it whenever he comes on stage. The image of the geek with the surprising voice has been an Idol staple going back to the days of Clay Aiken. He comes across as bemused by his success and thrilled just to be here.
Cons: He has a nice vocal timbre but hasn't been quite as effective in projecting power and emotion. Like most inexperienced performers, he's going to have issues with inconsistency. His academic pursuits and Indian background will mark him as exotic to a good many viewers.
Summary: His popularity will buy him a few extra weeks, but one senses that the primary motivator behind Anoopmania is amazement that the guy can sing at all. Eventually, that won't be enough.
Will finish: Fifth.
Lil Rounds
Pros: Year in and year out, the judges show a particular weakness for soul divas, and Lil is this year's model. She not only has a big voice, but on the basis of her semifinal seems to be reining in her tendency to go over the top. She has the sympathetic back-story of dealing with the loss of her home in a tornado while trying to raise three children.
Cons: Only one "diva," broadly speaking, has ever won on American Idol, Fantasia five seasons ago. In fact, a substantial number of the most shocking departures in show history fit the diva mold, indicating that there is resistance out there to this sensibility. While being a mother is probably a net plus for her, it might work against her trying to build a more youthful image.
Summary: Lil is among the easier ones to predict: She's way too polished and talented to leave early, but it's hard to see her getting to the last week either.
Will Finish: Fourth.
Alexis Grace
Pros: Simon Cowell compared her to Kelly Clarkson, and there's definitely a resemblance -- the "little girl with the big voice" is another Idol staple. She's Southern, and she has a cute daughter and a sweetheart in the military, all positives. While she had a fine audition, most didn't really notice her till her semifinal, and the image of the unknown rising slowly to the top is one that is irresistible to many fans. And to top it all off, she's plenty cute.
Cons: The biggest ones would seem to be her relative inexperience and the sense that the show is looking for a male winner -- this despite the fact that Clarkson and Carrie Underwood are the most successful Idol winners by far.
There's some question yet as to how she can perform outside the soul box (a stab at "Before He Cheats" in Hollywood was ultra-ordinary).
Summary: Has to be seen as a strong favorite and could benefit from flying under the radar while Gokey and Lambert fans spend the next two months shooting at each other.
Will finish: Third.
Adam Lambert
Pros: Few performers in Idol history can match his experience performing before large crowds (he's a veteran of the Wicked tour). Stage fright will never be an issue here. A vocal range that can handle most anything. The judges love him.
Cons: There's a question about whether his sensibility, which seems derived not just from Broadway but from metal and glam gods of the 1970s, can really sell to a 2009 audience. Then there's the matter of the drag and "I kissed a boy and I liked it" photos that emerged in recent days, not that he necessarily came across as straight prior to that (this is a guy who did Cher's "Believe" in Hollywood, for heaven's sake). Being polarizing isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it puts an upper limit on how big his support can ever get.
Summary: I named Adam as the likely winner after both the audition and the Hollywood rounds. But there's not much about my history following this show, and life in the United States in general, that leads me to believe a more or less openly gay performer can become the American Idol.
Will finish: Second.
Danny Gokey
Pros: No one has received more airtime thus far, in large part because his personal story (his wife died a month before his first audition) has been so irresistible. As a church music leader, he has also caught on with the substantial portion of the show's audience that seeks out religious contestants to follow. Sings with deep feeling and even soul. He has done no wrong in the eyes of the judges.
Cons: Many viewers feel Gokey and some of his family members and supporters have gone way over the top in using his personal tragedy to garner votes; this, plus the relentless praise from the judges, could lead to a backlash. Gokey is one of the older contestants and isn't conventionally attractive, and the judges may come to worry that removed from the hype of the show, he would struggle to sell records.
Summary: He has such a big leg up on support that I'm not sure Idol could keep him from winning now even if it wanted to.
Will finish: First.
