Summer Movies Studio Breakdown

C. Robert Cargill April 23, 2009

Oh my word. Is it that time again? Already? Is it really summer blockbuster season? What am I talking about? Of course it is. And if the three blockbusters (and two smaller films) I’ve seen already are any indication, we are in for one hell of a season. But in the knock-down, drag-out of the summer box office, who will be left standing, and who will be left with egg on their face? Last year’s big loser by far was 20th Century Fox; they were so utterly humiliated that I’d need an entire article to express it. Meanwhile, Warner Bros. scored the single biggest hit of the year and dominated an entire month before someone unseated The Dark Knight from its top spot. They did so well that they were able to casually move the next installment of the Harry Potter series from last holiday season to this summer, allowing them to tweak it (hopefully) to perfection. So who will be this year’s big winners?

src="http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/8/4/6/6/17326648-17326651-thumbnail.jpg" alt="Paramount" width="104" height="142" border="0" align="left" hspace="6">The award for the most successful summer tent poles goes to: PARAMOUNT. Star Trek and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen are absolute sure things. I’ve seen Star Trek, and it is going to blow this summer wide open, giving Harry Potter its one true possible rival for king of the summer. Transformers did incredibly well, and the hype on this one is ramping up full throttle. Bay wanted it bigger, louder, and more “awesome.” It looks like he got his wish. Meanwhile, G.I. Joe is by all accounts shaping up to be awful. But it will kill with the kids, bad or not, making for three Paramount hits. Sure, they’ve got an awkward-looking comedy, Imagine That, and one of this summer’s weakest looking offerings, Dance Flick (parody films based on a single genre are so last year, Wayans.) But nothing will tarnish the gold this studio will rock with its two giant hits.

src="http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/1/6/6/6/17326661-17326664-thumbnail.jpg" alt="Universal" width="104" height="142" border="0" align="left" hspace="6">The award for best counter programming goes to: UNIVERSAL STUDIOS. While everyone else is zigging, Universal is zagging. Just as summer fever comes out in May, they’re giving us the incredible Drag Me To Hell — a fun, enthralling horror film that is going to take people by surprise. They’re following that up with Land of the Lost, a big budget family comedy. Fourth of July weekend they’re going after the adult movie goer by putting a Johnny Depp-led gangster film (Public Enemies) against the third in the very-tired-to-begin-with Ice Age franchise. Then they hit us with Bruno right when we need something fresh and over-the-top. And finally, they close out the summer with a Judd Apatow comedy that looks like the most heartwarming he’s done yet, Funny People.

src="http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/4/5/6/6/17326654-17326657-thumbnail.jpg" alt="Universal" width="104" height="142" border="0" align="left" hspace="6">The sure thing award goes to: WARNER BROS. Two words: Harry Potter. Two more words: Terminator Salvation. The rest of their films are anybody’s guess, putting them a hair behind Paramount. It’s entirely possible that even if they’re one hit shy, they’ll still take the summer with these two films.

src="http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/3/0/8/3/26313803-26313806-thumbnail.jpg" alt="The Brothers Bloom" width="104" height="142" border="0" align="left" hspace="6">The “What the hell were they thinking?” award goes to: SUMMIT ENTERTAINMENT. New on the scene and flush with all that crazy Twilight money, they’re taking the summer by storm … by stepping in front of trucks. Putting a movie like Next Day Air in the way of Star Trek in the era of the four screens per theater opening is bad enough, but to put The Brothers Bloom — one of the best movies you’ll see this year — anywhere near the summer, let alone against Angels & Demons (and between Star Trek and Terminator) is the biggest mistake of the summer. Brothers Bloom is going to get killed. For no good reason. And The Hurt Locker? During the summer? Um. No. These guys seem to be allergic to success and trying their damndest to avoid it again.

src="http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/6/6/7/6/17326766-17326769-thumbnail.jpg" alt="20th Century Fox" width="104" height="142" border="0" align="left" hspace="6">The biggest underperformer award goes to: 20th CENTURY FOX. This summer will not be a repeat of last summer, I assure you. They will, however, release a series of films that will underperform every time. Wolverine has already been marred by an Internet leak and bad buzz, killing the fevered excitement that would have had people talking about it all week before release. Night at the Museum was a hit because it was released during the family holiday season. Its sequel is going to go the way of Prince Caspian and disappoint compared with its predecessor amid all the other family-geared tent poles. Ice Age is a lame, lame franchise and I’m dying to see if it can compete against giant robots, flying houses, and the real-looking dinosaurs in Land of the Lost. Its Fourth of July placement might make it some bank — but it won’t last long, even if it manages to eke out first place from Transformers second weekend. And I Love You, Beth Cooper looks like cute fun, and I hear the book was great, but against Bruno? Really?