Oddsmakers: Will the Actors Strike?

The Screen Actors Guild and the Producers have been in contract negotiations since April 15th, and strike tensions are running high.

On Monday evening, the SAG web site bore the following text, co-signed by SAG and AMPTP representatives:

Los Angeles, May 5, 2008 - The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers and Screen Actors Guild met today and have concluded their session. The parties will resume negotiations at 10:00 a.m. Tuesday.
We have no further comment.

The joint statement, though terse, gives one hope. No one wants to see summer production shut down, which is what will happen if a deal isn't in place by the June 30 contract expiration date. The fact that the two parties are still at the table is encouraging; clearly, they've found something to keep talking about. SAG and AMPTP have pushed back the talks deadline several times thus far, and have generally made nice. This is nothing like the snarl-fest that was AMPTP versus the Writers Guild. The real pissing match here is between SAG and AFTRA, which, for the first time in two decades, are negotiating separately with AMPTP.

Negotiating about what, you ask?

1.) What the Producers want.
You have to ask? They want to keep the money.

2.) What the Screen Actors want.
Among other things, they want more residuals and they want income from Web streaming and new media outlets. This fight isn't about any actor whose name you've ever heard of. It's about the working actor whose kids need orthodontia, and who just stays ahead of the bills with voice work and the occasional TV episode or movie gig.

Like all contract talks, it's a big game of who'll blink first. Well in this case, I'm thinking SAG will. For one thing, there's a big spoiler in the game, called AFTRA ...

3.) What AFTRA wants.
Reportedly, a lot less. And AFTRA and the Producers are scheduled to sit down on May 7th. If the Producers can make a low-ball deal with the less ballsy AFTRA, they won't grant more goodies to SAG. Like Humphrey Bogart said, "When you're slapped, you'll take it and like it!"

For another thing, 75 percent of SAG members would have to vote YES on Proposition Strike. That's 90,000 people who work sporadically in the best of times, and who, due to the WGA strike, have already experienced recent work stoppage. Clooney and Pitt may be able and willing to absorb a further income hit this year, but your average actor is just trying to stay in the middle class. The issues of Web revenues and residuals will come to a head sometime though, and if not this year, that means putting it off until the next contract negotiations in 2011. So far, it looks like next time. By Monday, SAG had modified its residuals demands and caved on raises for guest stars.

What're the odds? 3-1 SAG negotiators make a deal.

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Jane Black

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