There may not be a single mathematically inclined bone in my body, but my guy has scientifically calculated that there’s a 53% chance of Justin Long becoming a major movie star.

What’s my gut’s formula? Talent + Charisma – past failures at breaking out = Drag Me to Hell will be a crucial diagnostics check for the world’s most famous Mac. Here’s a breakdown:

Talent + Charisma

There are two reasons we haven’t gotten sick of those computer commercials yet, and Justin Long is one of them. Long’s laid-back Mac has provided us with the definition of cool in the post-geek chic world. He doesn’t have the swagger of a Brad Pitt or even a Hugh Jackman, but he’s still smarter and funnier than the average “everyman.” Girls who aren’t hung up on rock stars or superstar athletes think he’s cute, and guys who know they have no shot of becoming rock stars or superstar athletes want to be him. Even if his movie career ultimately fails, he’s already become a pop culture icon.

- Past Failures at breaking out

Long has brought these same qualities to his film and television roles and has shown some nice range in his ability to alternate between playing the sweet nerd (Ed) and the wisecracking hipster (Accepted). He’s even gotten some tabloid attention for his on-again/off-again romance with Drew Barrymore. So why hasn’t any of this translated into box office success?

Could it be that he’s just fated to be the type of actor people always like in things, but not enough to seek out their other work? So far in his career, Long has been mostly relegated to playing the sidekick (Live Free or Die Hard) or serving as a utility player in large ensembles (He’s Just Not That Into You). He’s appeared in hit movies, but hasn’t proven himself as a leading man yet. He’s the kind of actor that will have you whispering, “I love that guy!” to your friend in the movie theater, but not yet the kind of star that will have you calling up your friend and asking, “Hey, do you want to go see Justin Long’s new movie this weekend?”

= Drag Me To Hell will be a crucial diagnostics test

It takes a magic blend of talent and timing for an actor to find their breakout role. Long has had several chances already, but so far nothing’s stuck out for him. Drag Me to Hell is getting some great buzz and could have a big opening this weekend, but how should I interpret the fact that Long’s name isn’t even mentioned in this review?

So, the chances of Justin Long finally breaking out remain about even. I’m weighing the odds slightly in his favor because of his obvious talent. It really could just be a matter of waiting for the right role or a director who will push him harder to deliver a true knockout performance. Unfortunately, it’s hard not to worry that maybe “Mac guy” was the biggest break he was ever going to get. If people still aren’t talking about Justin Long as a movie star after Drag Me To Hell, you know that somewhere, a certain PC will be smiling.

Tags: drag me to hell, justin long