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Joe Reid

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Joe is a writer, internetter, New Yorker, and world's biggest fan of "The Hours." He prefers the aisle seat in almost any context.

Golden Globes Predictions 2013

Meet our new awards expert Joe Reid — keep up with his column for the predictions, news and opinions you’ll need to sound well-informed at parties for the entire awards season.

The 70th Annual Golden Globe Awards air this weekend, just in time to somehow make your Sunday night TV recordings even more impossible. The Globes are reliably one of the most fun nights in the entertainment, full of celebrities hobnobbing at tables that rapidly clutter up with empty wine glasses. It’s fantastic. And in a year when the big Academy Awards races haven’t settled on prohibitive favorites yet, it’s an early window into who might be the favorites for Oscar.

While the split between drama and comedy films mean that some of the categories will be easier to call than others (Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence will each get to win this week), six categories in particular are total toss-ups. Here are our predictions for the Globes, starting with those six most competitive categories and then moving on through the locks (hello, Daniel Day-Lewis).

Best Motion Picture, Drama

“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Life of Pi”
“Lincoln”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

The trajectory of this year’s awards season has been all over the map, and at this point, I still think there are a good three to four movies that could take the Best Picture Oscar. Three of them are competing in this category at the Globes. “Zero Dark Thirty” is not nearly glitzy enough to be a threat (though “Babel” won this category for 2006, so never say never), so I think we’re down to “Argo” vs. “Lincoln.” The Globes might love Steven Spielberg even more than the Oscars do; a “Lincoln” win would be the fourth Spielberg movie to win in this category. I think it gets the edge slightly over “Argo.” However it shakes out, I wouldn’t take it as a great omen. In the past ten years, only two winners in this category have gone on to win Best Picture at the Oscars.

Bernie

Best Actor, Musical or Comedy

Jack Black – “Bernie”
Bradley Cooper – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Hugh Jackman – “Les Misérables”
Ewan McGregor – “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen”
Bill Murray – “Hyde Park on Hudson”

Another two-nominee race, all due credit to Mssrs. Black, Murray and McGregor. My guess is that Hugh Jackman’s song and — well, not “dance,” exactly, so I guess just “song” — anyway, Hugh Jackman‘s pipes probably give him the edge over Bradley Cooper. But “Les Mis” didn’t exactly light the Globe nominations on fire like one might have expected; there’s no Best Director nod for Tom Hooper, for one thing. That puts Cooper in striking distance.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin – “Argo”
Leonardo DiCaprio – “Django Unchained”
Philip Seymour Hoffman – “The Master”
Tommy Lee Jones – “Lincoln”
Christoph Waltz – “Django Unchained”

COMPLETE TOSSUP. Honestly, any one of these five guys could walk away with the trophy here and I would not be surprised. It should be noted that Arkin is the only actor here who has not won a Globe before. The heavyweight performances come from Hoffman and Tommy Lee Jones, but I’m going out on a bit of a limb and picking DiCaprio, who is a huge Globes favorite (nine nominations over the years, one win for “The Aviator”) and could easily walk away with another statue.

Ben Affleck

Best Director

Ben Affleck – “Argo”
Kathryn Bigelow – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Ang Lee – “Life of Pi”
Steven Spielberg – “Lincoln”
Quentin Tarantino – “Django Unchained”

Three of the past four winners in this category got beat out for the Oscar so maybe this is an award the nominees don’t want to win. The competitive nature of the year makes me want to predict that Best Director and Best Picture Drama will split, which puts it down to Affleck or Bigelow. I’m just not ready to see Ben Affleck accept an award for directing yet, and the Hollywood Foreign Press might be looking to make it up to Kathryn Bigelow for choosing James Cameron over her in 2009, so I’m betting on Bigelow.

Best Original Score

Dario Marianelli – “Anna Karenina”
Alexandre Desplat – “Argo”
Mychael Danna – “Life of Pi”
John Williams – “Lincoln”
Tom Tykwer, Johnny Klimek & Reinhold Heil – “Cloud Atlas”

The 2005 (Williams), 2006 (Desplat), and 2007 (Marianelli) champions in this category will probably battle it out, much as I hope that the “Cloud Atlas” team would take it home. Then again, this could be the one place to give “Life of Pi” some love, since there’s no visual effects category at the Globes. I’ll take a flier on Mychael Danna.

A Royal Affair

Best Foreign Language Film

“Amour”
“A Royal Affair”
“The Intouchables”
“Rust and Bone”
“Kon-Tiki”

“Amour” has been the most acclaimed of these five movies in critical circles, and Haneke won this category back in 2009 for “The White Ribbon.” But the indicator for this race might reside in the Best Actress category, where Marion Cotillard was nominated for “Rust and Bone” and Emmanuelle Riva was overlooked for “Amour.” So be on the lookout for the upset.

Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy

“The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
“Les Misérables”
“Moonrise Kingdom”
“Salmon Fishing in the Yemen”
“Silver Linings Playbook”

This category will almost certainly go the same way as the Best Actor category will go: Jackman/“Les Mis” will win unless its support is really weak with the HFPA, in which case Cooper/”Silver Linings Playbook” scores the upset.

Lincoln

Best Actor, Drama

Daniel Day-Lewis – “Lincoln”
Richard Gere – “Arbitrage”
John Hawkes — “The Sessions”
Joaquin Phoenix – “The Master”
Denzel Washington – “Flight”

Probably the biggest lock of the night. I can’t even think of who might be the most likely upset pick. Daniel Day-Lewis will win.

Best Actress, Drama

Jessica Chastain – “Zero Dark Thirty”
Marion Cotillard – “Rust and Bone”
Helen Mirren – “Hitchcock”
Naomi Watts – “The Impossible”
Rachel Weisz – “The Deep Blue Sea”

With Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence in separate categories, we won’t be getting a true Oscar preview until SAG. I suppose Chastain could be vulnerable to a wholesale “ZDT” fatigue, leaving room for … Cotillard? Watts? I don’t believe that’s happening. Chastain wins.

Best Actress, Musical or Comedy

Emily Blunt – “Salmon Fishing in the Yemen”
Judi Dench – “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel”
Jennifer Lawrence – “Silver Linings Playbook”
Maggie Smith – “Quartet”
Meryl Streep – “Hope Springs”

Same as above, swapping Lawrence’s name for Chastain and acknowledging that none of Lawrence’s competitors are even at the Cotillard/Watts level in terms of a potential upset. I’d say Jennifer Lawrence is the second-biggest lock after DDL.

The Master

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams – “The Master”
Sally Field – “Lincoln”
Anne Hathaway – “Les Misérables”
Helen Hunt – “The Sessions”
Nicole Kidman – “The Paperboy”

Anne Hathaway has had this thing in her back pocket forever … only she hasn’t really won anything yet. And while it’s not exactly surprising that the critics’ awards didn’t go for “Les Mis,” it still leaves the door slightly ajar for the possibility that the movie just isn’t working for enough people. Meanwhile, Sally Field has been playing this campaign exactly right. I don’t think Hathaway will lose, but if she does, look out for Sally.

Best Screenplay

“Argo”
“Django Unchained”
“Lincoln”
“Silver Linings Playbook”
“Zero Dark Thirty”

I would be very surprised if Tony Kushner didn’t sweep here and at the Oscars for his “Lincoln” script. It’s the element of the film that gets the most credit, and when you can say that about a film that’s also directed by Steven Spielberg and stars Daniel Day-Lewis, that is saying something.

Best Original Song

“For You” (Keith Urban and Michael McDevitt) from “Act of Valor”
“Not Running Anymore” (Jon Bon Jovi) from “Stand Up Guys”
“Safe & Sound” (Taylor Swift and The Civil Wars) from “The Hunger Games”
“Skyfall” (Adele and Paul Epworth) from “Skyfall”
“Suddenly” (Claude-Michel Schönberg, Alain Boublil and Herbert Kretzmer) from “Les Misérables”

How could you possibly give this to anyone but Adele? Absent a giant nostalgia wave for Jon Bon Jovi (he had his chance with “Young Guns II”! It’s somebody else’s turn now!), “Skyfall” takes this in a walk.

Wreck-It Ralph

Best Animated Feature Film

“Brave”
“Frankenweenie”
“Hotel Transylvania”
“Rise of the Guardians”
“Wreck-It Ralph”

Not a great year for animated features, with an underwhelming showing for Pixar’s “Brave” and no clear favorite for awards. “Frankenweenie” has probably done the best with the critics’ awards, but “Wreck-It Ralph” is the flavor of the moment, and I’d give it the edge right now.

Also check out Oscar Predictions 2013, Our Picks Thus Far

This year’s Golden Globes predictions, Golden Globes contenders and personal Golden Globes picks come from the eerily prescient mind of our awards expert, Joe Reid.


Categories: Awards

Tags: Anna Karenina, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Bernie, Django Unchained, Flight, Hitchcock, Hope Springs, Les Miserables, Life of pi, Lincoln, Magic Mike, Moonrise Kingdom, Silver Linings Playbook, The best exotic marigold hotel, The Guilt Trip, The master, Zero Dark Thirty

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