Best Picture

Pick: The Artist

Thoughts: This is exactly the sort of film The Academy likes to reward, homage-y, though not a precise homage. Cute, uplifting, and (seemingly) inclusive of international cinema while also being shot in California. Right now it’s a bigger favorite than either King’s Speech or Hurt Locker were, a remarkable feat given the lack of star power. If you were looking for an upset I maintain the likeliest film is The Help because it should have the support of the largest voting bloc (The Actors).

Confidence Level: 8 out of 10

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Best Director

Pick: Martin Scorsese

Thoughts: This year is primed for a Best Picture / Best Director split. The Artist director Michel Hazanavicius is the prohibitive favorite, but he can’t possibly have as many friends in The Academy as Marty. The only real shocker of the evening.

Confidence Level: 6 out of 10

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Best Actor

Pick: Jean Dujardin

Thoughts: Two months ago this was Clooney’s statue to lose. But he’s already got hardware from Syriana and another 20 years (at least) of acting and directing ahead of him. As such, he didn’t campaign hard for the win, whereas Jean Dujardin was relentless, the guy was everywhere. It will all pay off on Sunday night.

Confidence Level: 9 out of 10

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Best Actress

The Pick: Viola Davis

Thoughts: Streep is the only other possibility here, but The Iron Lady isn’t well regarded. The Help is, and it will earn Viola Davis her first Academy Award.

Confidence Level: 9 out of 10

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Best Supporting Actor

The Pick: Christopher Plummer

Thoughts: If not for Max von Sydow being nominated this would be a 99.9 percent easy call. As such, it’s only a 95 percent easy call, but it should be Plummer for his sublime work in Beginners.

Confidence Level: 10 out of 10

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Best Supporting Actress

The Pick: Octavia Spencer

Thoughts: The easiest call of the evening. She’s worked the Awards Season with verve and grace, shoring up her support at every opportunity. A sure thing.

Confidence Level: 11 out of 10

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Best Animated Feature Film

The Pick: Rango

Thoughts: Gore Verbinski didn’t receive an Oscar nomination for any of his Pirates of the Caribbean work, so I’m slightly concerned that he’s not insidery enough to pull off a win with the slightly strange Rango. If you were looking for upsets you could do worse than Chico and Rita, which I’d give a legitimate 33 percent shot.

Confidence Level: 5 out of 10

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Best Foreign Film

The Pick: A Separation

Thoughts: A Separation feels “lockish” because it will give The Academy a chance to say “Iran, they are just like us!”

Confidence Level: 8 out of 10

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Best Original Screenplay

The Pick: Midnight in Paris

Thoughts: Woody Allen isn’t a member of The Academy and never shows up to the ceremony, which doesn’t help his chances. The Artist might steal the category because of that, but I’m betting on Woody because he hasn’t won since 1987.

Confidence Level: 8 out of 10

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Best Adapted Screenplay

The Pick: The Descendants

Thoughts: Moneyball had to have been a nightmare to adapt, and they did a stellar job, but this will be the “sorry about you guys losing everything else” award for The Descendants.

Confidence Level: 9 out of 10

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Best Art Direction

The Pick: Hugo

Thoughts: I like Hugo to make some noise in the smaller categories.

Confidence Level: 7 out of 10

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Best Costume Design

The Pick: Hugo

Thoughts: The Artist is the slight favorite here but Sandy Powell is the heavy hitter in this category. I like her to win her fourth Oscar for Hugo.

Confidence Level: 6 out of 10

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Best Original Song

The Pick: “Man or Muppet” from The Muppets

Thoughts: Rio‘s “Real in Rio” doesn’t seem to have a chance in hell. Sure, The Academy could mess up a coin flip call, but we’ll keep it simple and take the favorite.

Confidence Level: 9 out of 10

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Best Original Score

The Pick: The Artist

Thoughts: The Artist is all score, and it should steam to victory here. If it doesn’t the wheels might start coming off The Artist‘s freight train.

Confidence Level: 10 out of 10

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Best Documentary

The Pick: Undefeated

Thoughts: A very close category. I’m going with “uplifting” and “football/education related” given the voting demographic, plus this one has the lobbying might of The Weinstein Company behind it.

Confidence Level: 7 out of 10

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Best Documentary (Short)

The Pick: The Tsunami and the Cherry Blossom

Thoughts: Saving Face is a clear contender. Still, I think the votes go to the film that details Japan’s struggle.

Confidence Level: 5 out of 10

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Best Cinematography

The Pick: The Tree of Life

Thoughts: Did more in the category than the other films. If we get an Artist or Hugo upset here it could portend a big night for one of them.

Confidence Level: 8 out of 10

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Best Film Editing

The Pick: The Artist

Thoughts: This is another “indicator” category. If The Artist slips here it could signal The Academy has soured on the black and white whimsy.

Confidence Level: 9 out of 10

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Best Makeup

The Pick: The Iron Lady

Thoughts: A slight nod to the Meryl Streep film, which did feature interesting makeup.

Confidence Level: 9 out of 10

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Best Sound Editing

The Pick: Hugo

Thoughts: Hugo is a massive favorite here.

Confidence Level: 10 out of 10

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Best Sound Mixing

The Pick: Hugo

Thoughts: Hugo is less of a favorite here, War Horse could pillage.

Confidence Level: 8 out of 10

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Best Visual Effects

The Pick: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Thoughts: I don’t even think there’s a second place here. It’s all Apes, all the time.

Confidence Level: 10 out of 10

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Best Short Film (Animated)

The Pick: La Luna

Thoughts: Depending who you talk to, the favorite could be The Fantastic Flying Books of Mr. Morris Lessmore. But I’m taking Pixar in a “sorry we couldn’t give you the animated crown this year” consolation prize.

Confidence Level: 4 out of 10

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Best Short Film (Live Action)

The Pick: Time Freak

Thoughts: I’ve got the two Irish shorts splitting the vote, allowing the American short Time Freak to sneak in.

Confidence Level: 3 out of 10

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Tags: academy awards, christopher plummer, george clooney, Hugo, Jean Dujardin, meryl streep, octavia spencer, oscars, The Artist, The Descendants, The Help, viola davis, War Horse