One of the few sure things this Oscar season is that WALL-E will win the prize for Best Animated Feature. It earned near-universal praise from film critics and audiences alike, it’s nominated in five other categories — heck, there was even some talk of nominating it for Best Picture. It’s a shoo-in!

OR IS IT???

Sorry to alarm you there. WALL-E will probably still win the Best Animated Feature Oscar on Sunday. But there is some cause for worry, and its name is Kung Fu Panda. The Jack Black comedy swept the 36th Annual Annie Awards, which honor the finest in animated productions, taking home 10 trophies. WALL-E got zero. Panda won for writing, directing, voice-acting, and production design, as well as best picture. Even its video game beat WALL-E‘s!

In fact, not only did Panda dominate in its categories, but its spin-off short film, Secrets of the Furious Five, which appeared on the Panda DVD, got another five awards.

Kung Fu Panda was a fine film, make no mistake. But was it better than WALL-E in every single category? Should this crazy sweep at the Annies make the Pixar folks worried about what will happen on Oscar night? After all, since the Oscars added the Best Animated Feature category in 2001, the winner has matched the Annie winner every year except 2006 (when the Annies chose Cars and the Oscars went with Happy Feet). By that reckoning, it would be statistically surprising if Kung Fu Panda didn’t win. Then again, no cartoon this decade has earned as many Oscar nominations as WALL-E, and overall acclaim is bound to help WALL-E‘s chances.

There’s another reason to be skeptical of the Annies. They are presented by the Hollywood chapter of the International Animated Film Association. Many animation companies serve as sponsors, and DreamWorks — which made Panda — is a Gold Sponsor. Pixar is only at the Silver level. Is it crass to suggest that this influenced this year’s outcome? What about the fact that to join the voting ranks, all one has to do is buy a membership, and that anyone — even people who are just movie fans and have no connection to the industry — can do so?

In other words, what happened at the Annies might have no bearing whatsoever on the Oscars. But it is the only scenario our scientists have been able to devise in which WALL-E fails to win. All the other scenarios are highly improbable: massive Academy voter fraud, a backlash spearheaded by the two critics in America who didn’t like WALL-E, an Oscar shutdown organized by extremist Veggie Tales fans who were enraged over their film’s snub, etc.

We’re pulling for the plucky little waste allocation load lifter, Earth-class, mainly because we’d hate to see the sad look in his binoculars if he loses. Whatever that panda’s name was, he can probably handle it.

(By the way, the third nominee is Bolt. It’s not going to win. That’s why we didn’t talk about it.)

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Eric D. Snider (website) looks forward to the chilling WALL-E sequel, The Three Faces of EVE.

Tags: bolt, kung fu panda, wall-e