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Laremy Legel

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Member of the BFCA and OFCS, writer of criticism, noted interviewer, box office oracle, walker of dog named Bugsy, Qui audet adipiscitur.

2009 Oscar Nominations, Predictions, and Polls

Best Picture

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/101/06417101.jpg” alt=”Slumdog Millionaire” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Slumdog Millionaire

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Frost/Nixon

Milk

The Reader

Shocker: No Dark Knight? Really? Wow. That is crazy talk. The Wrestler was a longer shot, as was Doubt. The Reader taking up a slot is silly.

Pulling for: Gotta go with Slumdog Millionaire now.

Prediction: This is Slumdog Millionaire‘s award to lose, with Benjamin Button the runner-up.



Best Actor

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/6/5/3/8/25288356-25288359-thumbnail.jpg” alt=”Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler” width=”104″ height=”142″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler

Sean Penn, Milk

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Richard Jenkins, The Visitor

Shocker: Richard Jenkins was in the conversation, but no Clint Eastwood is definitely an upset.

Pulling for: I’ve got to pull for Mickey Rourke.

Prediction: Sean Penn should be considered the favorite, as Milk won’t be winning Best Picture.



Best Actress

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/8/5/6/8/24758658-24758661-thumbnail.jpg” alt=”Kate Winslet in The Reader” width=”104″ height=”142″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Meryl Streep, Doubt

Kate Winslet, The Reader

Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married

Angelina Jolie, Changeling

Melissa Leo, Frozen River

Shocker: Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky) and Cate Blanchett (Benjamin Button) get shut out. Jolie sneaking in is a slight upset.

Pulling for: I liked Hathaway’s performance the best, so I’m pulling for her.

Prediction: Gonna be a close category. Hathaway has buzz, Streep is always formidable, and Winslet has two Golden Globes this year. The only two to count out are Jolie and Leo.



Best Supporting Actor

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/9/2/9/6/16256929-16256937-thumbnail.jpg” alt=”Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight” width=”104″ height=”142″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt

Josh Brolin, Milk

Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road

Shocker: Pretty much a chalk category, though the unconventional Downey Jr. choice was acceptable because everyone knows where The Oscar is headed.

Pulling for: Heath Ledger.

Prediction: The safest bet on the board. If anyone gives you anything approaching even odds you should put all your money on it. Heath Ledger in a landslide.



Best Supporting Actress

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/3/3/1/6/22146133-22146136-thumbnail.jpg” alt=”Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona” width=”104″ height=”142″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona

Viola Davis, Doubt

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler

Amy Adams, Doubt

Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Shocker: Winslet getting a nod for The Reader in the lead category was strange, but the there aren’t any rules for Supporting versus Lead.

Pulling for: I loved Viola Davis in Doubt.

Prediction: I’m making Penelope Cruz the favorite.



Best Director

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/8/1/5/9/24749518-24749521-thumbnail.jpg” alt=”Danny Boyle in Slumdog Millionaire” width=”104″ height=”142″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Gus Van Zant, Milk

Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon

Stephen Daldry, The Reader

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire

Shocker: Christopher Nolan gets snubbed as The Academy’s punishment of The Dark Knight continues.

Pulling for: Danny Boyle is the only one I really even like in this category.

Prediction: Danny Boyle will win it. But Fincher is definitely breathing down his neck.



Best Original Screenplay

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/001/06248001.jpg” alt=”Frozen River” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Dustin Lance Black, Milk

Courtney Hunt, Frozen River

Andrew Stanton and Jim Reardon, Wall-E

Mike Leigh, Happy-Go-Lucky

Martin McDonagh, In Bruges

Shocker: I thought Woody Allen would get courtesy nod for a very good Vicky Cristina Barcelona script.

Pulling for: Martin McDonagh’s In Bruges script was very solid.

Prediction: It’s either Milk or Wall-E. I’ll take Milk.



Best Adapted Screenplay

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/001/05807001.jpg” alt=”The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Eric Roth and Robin Swicord, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire

John Patrick Shanley, Doubt

Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon

David Hare, The Reader

Shocker: This went according to plan, though I would have liked to see Justin Haythe’s Revolutionary Road adaptation sneak in.

Pulling for: I’m rooting against The Reader. Which makes me a Slumdog Millionaire fan.

Prediction: Another tough category. I’m going to say Slumdog Millionaire takes it, but I wouldn’t bet more than a dollar on it.



Best Animated Feature Films

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/301/05661301.jpg” alt=”Wall-E” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Wall-E

Bolt

Kung Fu Panda

Shocker: I thought Waltz with Bashir might get in, and Bolt‘s nomination is a slight surprise.

Pulling for: I’m pulling for Kung Fu Panda, but only in the sense one pulls for David versus Goliath.

Prediction: Wall-E will win this easily.



Best Art Direction

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/301/06265301.jpg” alt=”Changeling” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Changeling

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Revolutionary Road

The Duchess

The Dark Knight

Shocker: No real shocker here other than The Duchess picking up a nomination besides Costume Design.

Pulling for: I’m pulling for The Dark Knight. Just in general.

Prediction: This goes to Benjamin Button. For sure.



Best Cinematography

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/401/05530401.jpg” alt=”The Dark Knight” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

The Reader

Changeling

Slumdog Millionaire

Shocker: I thought Defiance might get a sympathy nod here. Revolutionary Road was a slight snub too.

Pulling for: Remember that thing I said about The Dark Knight? I stand by it.

Prediction: I think The Dark Knight actually takes this one. It’s a safe category for The Academy to do some face-saving.



Best Costume Design

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/801/06265801.jpg” alt=”The Duchess” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Milk

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Duchess

Australia

Revolutionary Road

Shocker: How does Australia make this list instead of Changeling? That’s insane.

Pulling for: I’m pulling for The Duchess. It was an underrated film.

Prediction: The Duchess will take it, especially as the only real competition (Changeling) didn’t even get a nomination.



Best Documentary (feature)

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/501/06250501.jpg” alt=”Man on Wire” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Man on Wire

Trouble the Water

The Garden

Encounters at the End of the World

The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)

Shocker: I.O.U.S.A. not making it is a surprise.

Pulling for: The only one I’ve seen is Man on Wire so I suppose I’ll cheer for it.

Prediction: Man on Wire definitely has the buzz and is the prohibitive favorite.



Achievement in Film Editing

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/201/06265201.jpg” alt=”Frost/Nixon” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Milk

Slumdog Millionaire

Frost/Nixon

Shocker: None. This category went as expected.

Pulling for: I think I’ll pull for Slumdog Millionaire as the editing was quite good throughout.

Prediction: I think they’ll give it to Frost/Nixon … unless the night turns into a complete Slumdog route.



Best Foreign Language Film

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/201/06637201.jpg” alt=”The Class” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>The Class

Departures

Waltz with Bashir

The Baader Meinhof Complex

Revanche

Shocker:Gomorrah missed the original cut of nine, which still seems strange.

Pulling for: Pass. I didn’t get to screen enough Foreign Language Films to feel confident cheering for anyone.

Prediction: This should be Waltz with Bashir‘s category to lose.



Achievement in Makeup

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/6/5/9/9/17819956.jpg” alt=”Hellboy II: The Golden Army” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Hellboy II: The Golden Army

Shocker: It would have been nice to see a Tropic Thunder nomination here, especially since Downey Jr. was nominated.

Pulling for: Anything but Hellboy II.

Prediction: I’d say Benjamin Button takes it.



Achievement in Music (Original Score)

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/301/06288301.jpg” alt=”Defiance” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Slumdog Millionaire

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Milk

Wall-E

Defiance

Shocker: I thought Changeling, Frost/Nixon, and Gran Torino all had a shot. But all of the choices are worthy.

Pulling for: I listen to the Slumdog Millionaire soundtrack at least once a week.

Prediction: I think Slumdog Millionaire takes this category with ease. So long as the voters actually listen to it.



Achievement in Music (Original Song)

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/rn/img/9/0/2/3/24693209-24693212-thumbnail.jpg” alt=”Slumdog Millionaire” width=”104″ height=”142″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>
A R Rahman featuring Sukhvinder Singh, Tanvi Shah & Mahalaxmi Iyer “Jai Ho”, Slumdog Millionaire

A R Rahman & M.I.A. “O Saya”, Slumdog Millionaire

Peter Gabriel “Down to Earth”, Wall-E

Shocker: No High School Musical 3? Did Miley not sing in Bolt?

Pulling for: I’d love for M.I.A. to win. She’s aces.

Prediction: I’m a little worried that Slumdog splits its own votes here, leaving Peter Gabriel to win. In fact, that’s what I’m predicting.



Achievement in Sound Editing

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/301/05505301.jpg” alt=”Iron Man” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>Wall-E

Iron Man

Wanted

Slumdog Millionaire

The Dark Knight

Shocker: Wanted getting in over Quantum of Solace is a surprise. I can’t really fault any of the choices here though.

Pulling for: I’m pulling for Wanted, if only because I seemingly liked that film much more than most people.

Prediction: It’s between Iron Man and Wall-E. I give the slight edge to Wall-E.



Achievement in Sound Mixing

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/701/05816701.jpg” alt=”Wanted” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Slumdog Millionaire

Wanted

WALL-E

Shocker: No Iron Man? Was Benjamin Button‘s sound mixing all that impressive?

Pulling for: I’ll cheer for Dark Knight here. The haunting drumbeats from that film really worked.

Prediction: I think Dark Knight pulls out a victory over Wall-E.



Achievement in Visual Effects

src=”http://i.realone.com/assets/cs/401/05530401.jpg” alt=”The Dark Knight” width=”100″ height=”150″ align=”left” hspace=”6″/>The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

The Dark Knight

Iron Man

Shocker: I thought they’d give Hellboy II another token nomination here. Thankfully they didn’t.

Pulling for: The Dark Knight.

Prediction: I think Iron Man gets this one as The Dark Knight has plenty of other categories to compete in.




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