It seemed logical to assume when High School Musical: Get in the Picture debuted last Sunday that it would be a massive success like everything else associated with the brand name. Seventeen million people tuned in to watch the premiere of the sequel to the original HSM, and that came on a Friday night in summer on the Disney Channel. Surely a Sunday airing of a related reality show on ABC could do nearly as well? Even 10 million viewers would be a hit by summer standards.

But it hasn't worked out that way -- not even close. The show has aired four times and has run fourth in its time slot every time, often against repeats. What has to be completely frustrating for ABC is that the Sunday airing finished well behind a repeat of America's Got Talent, a family-oriented reality talent show along similar lines to Get in the Picture. Yet America's Got Talent is the number one show of the summer again, while Get in the Picture likely owes its continuing existence to the needs of corporate synergy.

So what has gone wrong? Primary blame should not fall on the caliber of the young performers themselves, many of whom have excellent stage voices for high schoolers and some dancing ability to boot. While some of them sounded out of their element when asked to sing pop songs, the twelve kids selected for the final "campus" portion of the show (which starts next week) aren't going to embarrass themselves.

One factor that has likely lowered viewer interest is the lack of star power. The series features no one from High School Musical (although it appears we're going to get a cameo or two in coming weeks), and the six judges who served as screeners are completely anonymous. Nick Lachey is a likable host, but his role to this point has been minor.

The audition process also proved to be relatively uninvolving. While open casting calls were held, relatively few of the singers who showed up there amounted to much. It appears that most of the kids featured prominently so far were recommended to the producers by drama and music teachers, leading to scenes where the judges surprised kids at a rehearsal to tell them that they had just been picked for the High School Musical reality series. The show is using little tag lines to help us remember the kids, although the accomplishments listed can be hilariously uneven ("Has a 4.4 grade point average" is put on the same level as "Has 210 friends in her cell phone").

The show has been somewhat coy about describing exactly what is at stake in the competition; namely, a chance to star in a music video that will be seen at the conclusion of High School Musical 3, assuming anyone sticks around after the credits. That's not the same thing as getting to be in the movie itself, or even having any sort of real relationship with Disney once the show is over. The lack of anything at stake has likely affected the ratings, and everyone cut from now on will still get to be in the video, just not as the star. The fact that kids like the musical doesn't mean they are going to watch a reality show with a very tenuous connection to it.

Parents might want to watch HSM with their kids -- at least there is a storyline and songs to keep their attention. But an adult who is not a fan of reality TV or of the songs that were used for the auditions (it seemed like the same five of six kept getting sung) would have no particular reason to tune in to Get in the Picture.

And those who are fans of more traditional reality shows might be disappointed as well. One reason why kid-based or teen-based reality shows have had trouble is that the practice of holding bad auditions up for ridicule tends to be avoided. America's Got Talent makes fun of its awful adult auditioners, but the children are treated gently. The absolute worst singers for Get in the Picture never made it on the air, and even those who were obviously overmatched were usually dismissed in a way almost made it seem like a favor ("I think you need a little more time" was a frequent euphemism). The upbeat-ness of it all is not designed to appeal to adults.

There's one last possibility, one that might scare Disney a little bit: is it possible that High School Musical has already peaked? The first HSM film came out two and a half years ago -- not such a long time by the standards of youth fads; and of course, new kids are entering the prime HSM years all the time. But the original teen audience for the musicals might now find it all a bit childish, and even the 8-13 year olds who were the core of the phenomenon have other obsessions now -- in many cases figures closer to their own age like Miley Cyrus. No one is going to bet against the success of HSM 3 when it is released later this year, but Get in the Picture may be an indication that the most feverish part of the craze has come and gone.

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