The weekend had barely begun before the bad news was spreading: The Golden Compass was going to flop, big time. After Friday's box office estimates came in on Saturday morning, showing the film's poor showing right out of the gate, the Web was atwitter. The family fantasy film was going to end the weekend only in the mid $20 millions.

The final estimate -- $26.1 million -- may change slightly when the actual numbers are released later today, but it can't change enough to temper the storm of what can only be called glee from box office watchers. FirstShowing.net wonders whether this is "the death of New Line Cinema." Slashfilm harps that "this turkey will cinch Nicole Kidman's reputation as box office poison." Wow.

Certainly, things look bad for Compass. CHUD says that director Chris Weitz has confirmed that the film's budget -- before marketing costs -- is a whopping $250 million, which will be next to impossible to earn back, even worldwide. The multiplex, already overcrowded, will see the arrival of 12 more wide releases between now and Christmas Day, including the family-oriented Alvin and the Chipmunks and The Water Horse, which will split the kiddie crowd. There simply won't be room for Compass to hold onto many screens, never mind grow an audience. That's really too bad: it's not a bad film, and it's so visually stunning that it definitely deserves to be seen on a big screen.

Like I said last week, we're getting too many movies thrown at us.

The rest of the top five are familiar:

2) Enchanted: $10.7 million
3) This Christmas: $5 million
4) Fred Claus: $4.6 million
5) Beowulf: $4.4 million

The bright spot of the weekend? The teen pregnancy comedy Juno, in seven theaters, had a per-screen average of an astonishing $60,000 (Compass's was $7,405), which makes its debut one of the best ever. It expands wide on Christmas Day.

[Box office numbers via Box Office Mojo.]

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MaryAnn Johanson (email me)
reviews, reviews, reviews! at FlickFilosopher.com

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