The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has a lot of rules for the Oscars. For example, a film isn't eligible if it was shown on TV before it appeared in theaters. Also, a film cannot be nominated as a feature if it is less than 40 minutes long. Also, no film can be considered for an Academy Award if it contains Martin Lawrence.

Okay, that last one is more of an unwritten rule. There are a lot of other unwritten rules too, elements that seem to ensure an Oscar nomination for films that have them. So we thought we'd take a look at these rules, see who's following them, and thereby try to predict this year's Oscar winners.

RULE #1: MAKE YOUR PRETTY STARS LOOK UGLY.
Actors who wear prosthetics tend to get nominated. Think Nicole Kidman's fake nose in The Hours, or Charlize Theron's jacked-up face in Monster, or Tommy Lee Jones in anything.

There doesn't seem to be a lot of this so far in 2007, with one exception: Eddie Murphy's giant fat suit in Norbit. Could this be Eddie's year???

RULE #2: MENTAL PROBLEMS ARE AWESOME.
The surest way for an actor to get nominated for an Oscar is to play someone who's crazy or, um, mentally challenged. (We don't use the "R" word around here. But you know which one we mean.) Some memorable examples: Dustin Hoffman in Rain Man, Russell Crowe in A Beautiful Mind, Geoffrey Rush in Shine, and Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the Lambs.

It doesn't seem to work as easily for women, which is why I'm rooting for Helen Mirren in National Treasure: Book of Secrets. She plays Nicolas Cage's mother. I'm not sure if the character is crazy, but Helen Mirren is obviously insane for appearing in the stupid sequel to begin with. So I hope the Academy rewards her before dementia really sets in and she can't work anymore.

RULE #3: BE LONG AND, IF POSSIBLE, BORING.
If you want the Academy to even think about voting for your movie, you'd better make sure it runs at least two and a half hours. Sometimes, as with Lord of the Rings or Gladiator, these movies are a lot of fun. But it's preferable that they be not just long, but also boring. This is known as the "English Patient Rule."

The front-runner in this category is The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, which gets bonus points for also having a really long title. Just be glad they didn't go with the working title, which was The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Although the Term 'Coward' Is Debatable Because There Were a Lot of Factors at Play, and It's Not Like Jesse James Was Exactly a Saint, Either.

RULE #4: ADDRESS IMPORTANT SOCIAL ISSUES.
Remember a couple years ago when it was Brokeback Mountain versus Crash? Gays versus racism! The Academy was ecstatic with self-congratulation!

For that reason, I'm hoping I Now Pronounce You Chuck & Larry gets a nod. Who else but Adam Sandler could make meathead frat boys actually think about the issue of gay marriage?

RULE #5: NO LAUGHING!
Funny movies do not win Oscars. Occasionally someone gets an acting nomination for a comedic role (like Johnny Depp for Pirates of the Caribbean or Liam Neeson for Schindler's List), but they never win.

I'm still pulling for Norbit. If there was a less funny movie this year, I didn't see it.

Eric D. Snider (website) has correctly predicted zero of the last five Best Picture winners.

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