On Saturday night comes this year's Independent Spirit Awards, a counterpoint to the Oscars, which will be given out the next evening. They're not kidding when they call it independent. I saw more than 200 new theatrical releases in 2006, and I haven't even heard of some of the films nominated for Indies this year. I mean, Stephanie Daley? Apparently it debuted at Sundance (which I did not attend) and was little seen elsewhere, but it sounds fascinating: the goddess Tilda Swinton plays a pregnant forensic psychologist investigating the case of a teenager accused of concealing her pregnancy and murdering her infant. (A movie called, intriguingly, Four Eyed Monsters is nominated for best cinematography.)

Other nominees are flicks I've seen but that I know hardly anyone else did, because they played in only extremely limited releases. I'm based in New York City, and we get most of those. Like Man Push Cart [my review], a beautiful, haunting portrait of a quintessential type of New Yorker: the guys who sell donuts, bagels, and coffee from carts they push out to heavily trafficked street corners every morning. (It's nominated for Best Male Lead, for Ahmad Razvi; Best Director, for Ramin Bahrani; and Best Cinematography.) The Dead Girl [my review] received several major nominations, including those for Best Picture; Best Director, for Karen Moncrieff; and Best Supporting Female, for Mary Beth Hurt. This is a stunning and bleak film about how the vicious murder of one young woman sends ripples of influence spreading to people you'd never expect to be touched by her death.

As a harbinger for the Oscars, this year's Indies diverge widely from that other, and much bigger, awards show. A few films overlap -- Half Nelson, Little Miss Sunshine [my review], Pan's Lanyrinth [my review] -- but it's where the Indies differ that they're worth keeping an eye on. The Indies are far harder to prognosticate upon -- they're voted upon by members of Film Independent, who are much less predictable than members of the Academy -- but I have a sneaky feeling that The Dead Girl will do well here, may even take Best Picture. I'd love to see Sorry, Haters [my review] take Best Screenplay; it's one of the more original reactions to 9/11 we've seen on film thus far. Catherine O'Hara deserves Best Female Lead for her smart work on For Your Consideration [my review]. A huge leap beyond anything she's done before, it's as poignant as it is funny. Ryan Gosling is probably a given for Best Male Lead, but I'd love to see Aaron Eckhart win for Thank You for Smoking.

One thing we're sure never to see at the Oscars: Sarah Silverman as host. She returns to shepherd the Indies again this year, and if nothing else, she's sure to make the ceremony worth watching.

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