Erin Nolan,
Jan 07, 2009
I'm so over talking about the 2009 Oscars. I'm done debating Penn v. Rourke v. Langella. I don't care anymore which four actors are going to be given the honor of losing to Heath Ledger. I've stopped losing sleep over how they'll come up with enough worthy Best Actress nominees in such a male-dominated year. And I've made my pitch for The Dark Knight so many times by now my friends and family can probably recite it from memory.
But just because I'm sick of talking about this year's awards contenders doesn't mean I've lost my joy for making Oscar predictions. I'm just ready to move on to next year's race. Based on a mixture of extremely premature buzz, and your usual Oscar predictors (prestige names, source material, release dates, etc.), here are my guesses for a few of the films we'll all be sick of hearing about by this time next year:
Public Enemies
Potential Nominations: Best Picture, Best Actor for Johnny Depp and/or Christian Bale, Best Director for Michael Mann
How it could score: "One of the best actors of his generation" is a phrase that you hear thrown around a lot whenever Johnny Depp or Christian Bale come up in conversation. They'll be sure to give each other all they've got in this true-life, 1930s-era, cops and robbers thriller.
How it could disappoint: There are internet rumors floating around about a poor test screening. Has Mann lost his touch? It's easy to be skeptical when you remember his last directorial effort was the unfortunate Miami Vice.
The Lovely Bones
Potential Nominations: Best Picture, Best Actor for Mark Wahlberg, Best Actress for Saoirse Ronan, Best Supporting Actress for Susan Sarandon and/or Rachel Weisz, Best Supporting Actor for Stanley Tucci, Best Director for Peter Jackson, Best Adapted Screenplay for Jackson, Fran Walsh and Philippa Boyens
How it could score: It's a big-time literary adaptation from a guy who knows a thing or two (or three) about big-time literary adaptations. It has a tearjerker plot centered around a murdered teenager girl watching her family grieve from heaven, and it's chock-full of showy parts that will be played by a dream cast of past Oscar winners and nominees. If things go according to plan, The Lovely Bones could clean up in next year's awards season. But if I had to guess right now on which categories it has its best chances in, I'd go with Sarandon as the dead girl's boozy, brazen grandma, and Tucci as the creepy killer.
How it could disappoint: if Jackson focuses too much on the story's minor magical elements and fails to challenge the talented cast. And I'm still not convinced that Wahlberg was a suitable choice to replace Ryan Gosling as the grieving father.
Inglourious Basterds
Potential Nominations: Best Picture, Best Director and Best Original Screenplay for Quentin Tarantino
How it could score: Never underestimate Tarantino's ability to blow people's minds. Inglourious Basterds is a long-gesticulating labor of love, and there's no doubt he'll put his usual obsessive passion into completing his vision.
How it could fail: Will it be too over the top for the Academy? With Tarantino at the helm, this isn't going to be your grandpa's World War II film.
The Road
Potential Nominations: Best Picture, Best Actor for Viggo Mortensen, Best Adapted Screenplay
How it could score: The Cormac McCarthy novel it's based on is one of the best books of the decade. And Aragorn seems like a strong choice to lead us through the film's post-apocalyptic world.
How it could disappoint: McCarthy is a tricky writer whose work doesn't always translate well to the screen. The Coens succeeded with No Country for Old Men, but All the Pretty Horses was a big embarrassment for Billy Bob Thornton and Matt Damon.
The Soloist
Potential Nominations: Best Picture, Best Actor for Robert Downey, Jr. and/or Jamie Foxx, Best Director for Joe Wright, Best Original Score
How it could score: When it was originally scheduled for release last November, The Soloist was expected to land an Oscar nomination for Downey Jr., as a reward for his amazing 2008 comeback. And every Oscar season needs one feel-good film. This true story of a journalist who befriends a schizophrenic, homeless virtuoso could nicely fill that slot.
How it could disappoint: The delay of the release will inevitably be viewed by some as a sign that Paramount lacks faith in the film, whether it's true or not.
