(For a look at my should win/will win predictions in the glamour categories, go here.)

VISUAL EFFECTS
will win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
should win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

What they did to combine CGI and live action is extraordinary: To meld an expressive performance by the likes of Bill Nighy with a cartoon and not lose anything of his work is amazing.

COSTUME DESIGN
will win: Curse of the Golden Flower
should win: Marie Antoinette

It's battle of the historical fantasies, but Marie gets the edge thanks to its punky spunk and surprising touches, like the incongruous pair of Converse thrown in amongst the frilly flounces.

MAKEUP
will win: Pan's Labyrinth
should win: Pan's Labyrinth

The dude with the eyes on his hands? That's why this one wins. Also, Sergei Lopez's cheek slice. Eww.

ART DIRECTION
will win: Pan's Labyrinth
should win: Pan's Labyrinth

It's daydreamy, but it's also dark and weird and rough, and the Academy will like that. I think.

ORIGINAL SCORE
will win: Notes on a Scandal
should win: Notes on a Scandal

It's Philip Glass. His stuff really stands out among a sea of orchestral sameness, and he deserves the Oscar, especially on this, his third nom with no win.

ORIGINAL SONG
will win: "I Need to Wake Up" from An Inconvenient Truth
should win: "I Need to Wake Up" from An Inconvenient Truth

I suspect that social conscience and liberal guilt is going to win out here, though frankly, none of these songs is all that memorable.

SOUND MIXING
will win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
should win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

SOUND EDITING
will win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest
should win: Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest

I have no idea what the difference is between sound mixing and sound editing, but it seems to me that the noisiest movie always wins these two.

FILM EDITING
will win: Babel
should win: Babel

All those different stories mixing it up? This one's probably as sure a bet as any win this year.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
will win: Children of Men
should win: Children of Men

This will be the bone the Academy throws to the Cuaron film. But don't worry, dude will be getting his due in a very few years. He's the Coming Thing, and he's unstoppable.

And these last categories are pure, eeny-meeny-miney-mo guesses, because I haven't seen any of these films. I doubt anyone outside the Academy has seen all of these films.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
will win: "West Bank Story"

It's got political overtones ... or at least I'm guessing it does, anyway.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM
will win: "Lifted"

It's a Pixar film. That's all that matters.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
will win: "The Blood of Yingzhou District"

Sounds dangerous.

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