I.A.,
Dec 26, 2007
There are the day-to-day headlines from the world of television, and then there are the broad themes and trends that play out over a period of months and years. Here are a few of the ways television evolved in 2007:
The Writers' Strike:
The last possibility for a resolution that could save the remainder of the 2007-08 season seemed to have disappeared on December 7 when the AMPTP walked away from the bargaining table. These are uncharted waters, as the 1988 WGA strike was called after almost all filming had been completed for that season's shows. Only a few series, mostly sitcoms, have completely run out of new episodes, but virtually all the others will see their seasons end sometime in January, which will be when viewers first begin to notice the difference in prime time (even as late night returns to normal with the hosts all trickling back in).
The final impact of the strike is unknowable, but pilot season appears to be in real jeopardy, which means the 2008-09 season will probably not look much like a brand new year of television, at least in the fall. Cable does not adhere to a traditional TV schedule, which dictates that new shows premiere in September and shut down for the summer. Cable networks have benefited even as broadcast viewers are increasingly turning thumbs down on all reruns, especially during the summer. There's no particular reason the broadcast networks do things this way other than force of habit, though Fox has given some thought to a rolling schedule (a traditional fall launch is hard on Fox given how much baseball programming it runs in October). The economics of television are ever-changing even in a time of labor peace, so it's anyone's guess how things will shake out once the writers are back at work. One safe bet is that the networks will need fewer of those writers.
Showtime Up, HBO Down:
Over the last few years, HBO has come to look like NBC did back when the peacock network watched its Thursday night sitcoms run their course one by one while knowing they needed to develop something to take their place, but was unable to do so. First, HBO lost Sex and the City, and this spring it dealt with the departure of the highest-rated and most praised series in cable history, The Sopranos. The network had fair warning that both shows would be ending, but it has been unable to come up with anything that approaches their appeal. Entourage and Curb Your Enthusiasm are niche comedies. Rome and John From Cincinnati had their supporters but proved to be too expensive at a time of cost-cutting. The Wire has nearly as much critical backing as The Sopranos, but only a fraction of the audience; Tell Me You Love Me, a cross between soft porn and Ingmar Bergman films, is not made for mass consumption; and Flight of the Conchords is way too esoteric to ever be more than a cult hit. Big Love is probably HBO's keynote drama at this time, but it's not the sort of show that on its own motivates people to subscribe.
For the first time ever, Showtime has picked up some of HBO's critical cachet, and even some of its viewers: Dexter is now the highest-rated series Showtime has ever had. Brotherhood seems to be too dense for a mass audience, but The Tudors and Weeds have done well, as has the R-rated dramedy Californication. You can't bet against HBO regaining its buzz, but a definite slump is in progress, and the forced departure of its chair Chris Albrecht this spring after an incident of domestic violence sure didn't help.
Unreal Reality:
Unscripted television continues to look a little more scripted every day. There are always going to be those viewers who insist that nothing spontaneous ever happens on reality shows (these cries get loudest when a favorite is voted off American Idol), but it does appear that some fans of reality are developing an appetite for shows that are frankly manipulated. The Hills was initially billed as a true look at the real lives of Lauren Conrad and her friends, but now that Conrad herself has admitted that she recreates scenes that the cameras missed, inevitable suspicions have arisen that many other parts of the show, most notably the laughable "engagement" of Heidi Montag and Spencer Pratt, are completely staged. Even Big Brother, which would seem to be as manipulation-proof a show as you could get considering that the cameras are never off, made itself vulnerable to the charge that the producers intervened to keep its most colorful house guest Dick Donato and its "America's Player" Eric Stein safe from eviction. Perhaps this is a generational difference; young viewers who have grown up in an era of lip-synced "concerts" may assume that everything is faked anyway and don't much care.
DVRs Impact the Ratings:
As digital video recorders have become more prevalent, data about their usage has begun to affect the behavior of networks, and to some extent has changed the definition of what a successful show is. The 2007 shows whose ratings went up the most when DVRs were taken into account were Lost, which aired at 10:00 and practically demanded repeat viewing of certain key scenes, and Heroes, which had strong timeslot competition in the winter and spring from 24 (itself fifth on the Nielsen list of time shifted shows). The show with the highest percentage of viewers watching after its initial air date is The Office, which airs opposite two of the top five shows on television, CSI and Grey's Anatomy. Without such data, and without the existence of DVRs in the first place, The Office almost certainly would have been canceled long ago.
Cable Cougars:
The media has discovered that actresses of a certain age who are no longer deemed capable of carrying a major studio film release are finding homes in series on cable. This is not quite as new a phenomenon as one might think. Lucille Ball was a Hollywood veteran who had aged out of the sassy best friend parts she was known for when I Love Lucy debuted. But in an era where films are increasingly made with teenage boys and action-craving international audiences in mind, television is looking more like a necessary refuge for actresses who want to do serious work. Glenn Close (The Shield and Damages) and Holly Hunter (Saving Grace) lent instant gravity to their shows. Kyra Sedgwick (The Closer) and Mary-Louise Parker (Weeds), who were never really movie stars to begin with, have found the roles of a lifetime on cable. The big networks are making use of film veterans as well. Sally Field is usually the best thing about Brothers & Sisters; and Jill Clayburgh, whose brief run as an A-List star is nearly 30 years in the past, brings maternal authority to a generally underwritten role in Dirty Sexy Money. Can Sigourney Weaver, Joan Allen, and Meg Ryan be far behind?
Reality Not Sinking In:
It's ridiculous to say, as one still hears on occasion, that reality programming is a mere fad. But it can't be ignored that the big networks haven't come up with a major new reality hit since Dancing With the Stars debuted in the summer of 2005. Extreme Makeover: Home Edition gets solid ratings for ABC in the Sunday family hour, and of course American Idol remains the most popular show on television, even if it never again reaches the heights it did in 2006. But the other reality veterans seem to be clearly in the latter phases of their life cycles. Survivor still wins its timeslot, but will never be red hot again; and the futures of both Jeff Probst and Mark Burnett with the show are uncertain past the next season. The Bachelor, The Biggest Loser, and The Amazing Race are solid performers on a lower level, but aren't suddenly going to start winning their hours at this point. Kid Nation was excellent, but simply didn't catch on with viewers; and The Apprentice is now strictly a novelty show and vehicle for towing around Donald Trump's ego. The other reality shows that are considered hits either air on the CW (America's Next Top Model, which is still the network's highest-rated show), on basic cable (Project Runway), or during the summer (America's Got Talent). Most shows in all genres fail so there's no reason reality should be an exception, but over two years without the introduction of a new network reality hit is cause for concern, especially with the networks relying on these series to get them through the WGA strike.
