Golden Globes an Oscar Indicator?

Brad Pitt in Paramount Vantage's "Babel"
Paramount Vantage
Laremy Legel

The Golden Globes are now mercifully complete. Still, Warren Beatty's 20-minute award presentation will never really be over for us; it will always be there, the rest of our days. We've got to just move on and try with what's left of our lives to find goodness and meaning.

The bigger and more relevant concern is what this means for our beloved Oscars. What are the new trends, who lost out, and where are my reading glasses? All this and more answered right about now as I hand out some hardware of my own!

The Kiss of Death Award: goes to Babel
Yes, it shocked the world when it took home the Golden Globe for Best Picture (Drama), but it probably lost some points with Oscar. Just like last year with Crash and Brokeback Mountain, Oscar will want to zig where the Globes zagged and will feel Babel received enough love with the Globe win. This pushes The Departed and Dreamgirls into prime position.

The Kiss of Death Nomination Award: goes to Little Children, Children of Men, Little Man
The good news for Babel fans is that now the film is guaranteed an Oscar nomination for Best Picture (as Oscar won't leave the Hollywood Foreign Press out in the cold). That means the nominations for Best Picture are signed, sealed, and delivered with The Departed, Dreamgirls, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen, and now Babel rounding out the field. No one else need apply. Sorry, guys.

The Final Four Award: goes to Streep, Mirren, Whitaker, Cohen
The two Oscars in the lead actor categories will go to two of the above four, it's all but certain. Hudson and Murphy are your Oscar winners in the supporting categories, unless somehow a Babel gal sneaks through to ace out Hudson. Whitaker most likely beats Cohen, and Mirren probably defeats Streep at the big dance. The Golden Globes have recently been a solid predictor of Oscar winners; ten of the last twelve winners in the actor categories were Golden Globe winners too.

The Hey, We Can Be Silly Too Award: goes to Letters from Iwo Jima
It won't be eligible in the Foreign Film category for Oscar as it's as American as apple pie in terms of financing, and unlike the Globes, the Academy doesn't care about language, only country of overall production. So let's all waive goodbye to Letters from Iwo Jima together.

The His Day is NOT Made Award: goes to Clint Eastwood
Everyone collectively realized that Flags of Our Fathers was average, so no nomination there. Iwo isn't eligible. Which only leaves a possible Best Director nomination for Clint, which even if he snags he can't possibly win. Mercifully, our long summer of painful, irrational hero worship is over.

Yet Another Reverse Psychology Award: goes to Happy Feet
It was the first year the Globes tackled animation, and by giving the award to Cars it might have peaked too early in the award season. Happy Feet made far too much dough for tinseltown to ignore it.

The Lovely Parting Gifts Award: goes to The Queen
The Queen desperately needed that Best Drama award to stay with the pack, but Babel just submarined both their chances. Now Oscar can't go offbeat with Babel, and they can't go safe with The Queen. Both are left vying for the consolation Oscars such as Screenplay and the Supporting categories.

The Welcome to the Party Award: goes to Children of Men, Marie Antoinette, Superman Returns
The Golden Globes give out 13 awards in the film category. Oscar doles out 21. Simple math tells us a few more worthy (and unworthy too) films will be invited and awarded. The above three are strong in the Cinematography, Costumes, and Sound categories respectively.

The Who Let You In Award: goes to Will Ferrell
His nomination for Stranger than Fiction was weird at best, criminal at worst. Oscar won't be making the same mistake.

So there you have it, the newest in tea leaf reading technology from your old friend. All these predictions are null and void if any of the participants go on a drunken anti-Oscar rant.

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Laremy Legel blogged the Golden Globes live while his buddy Dre recapped them like a madman.

Mail Laremy.


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