Laremy Legel,
Dec 11, 2008
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
Should win: Revolutionary Road
Will win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Oscar fallout: Button, Slumdog, and Revolutionary Road move on to a Best Picture nomination. However, Milk missing from this category is a huge snub. I think The Reader and Frost/Nixon probably miss out come Oscar season, replaced by The Dark Knight and Milk.
Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
Burn After Reading
In Bruges
Happy-Go-Lucky
Mamma Mia
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Should win: In Bruges
Will win: Mamma Mia!
Oscar fallout: Very little. Oscar doesn't have a musical/comedy category and Barcelona, Mia!, and Happy-Go-Lucky really aren't in the Best Picture running.
Best Actor (Drama)
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Should win: Sean Penn, Milk
Will win: Sean Penn, Milk
Oscar fallout: This is probably the exact Best Actor lineup, unless they switch out Pitt for Del Toro's Che.
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Cruise, Tropic Thunder
Robert Downey Jr., Tropic Thunder
Ralph Fiennes, The Duchess
Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Should win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Will win: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Oscar fallout: Ledger and Hoffman are certain Oscar nominations, with a Ledger win a sure thing. Downey Jr. just gained a bit of momentum for a surprise (though deserved) nomination. Fiennes and Cruise should enjoy this moment, as they have no Academy hopes.
Best Actress (Drama)
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kristin Scott Thomas, I've Loved You So Long
Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Should win: Meryl Streep, Doubt
Will win: Kate Winslet, Revolutionary Road
Oscar fallout: Cate Blanchett (Benjamin Button) might sneak in for a nomination come Oscar time. At this point I can't see a Jolie nomination. Streep, Winslet, and Hathaway are all locks in this category. Sadly, Streep is at that terrible period in her career where she's been rewarded so often that they give the prize to the newbie. Give it 20 years Meryl, then you'll be in the "automatic Clint Eastwood win" zone.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, Doubt
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis, Doubt
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Should win: Viola Davis, Doubt
Will win: Viola Davis, Doubt
Oscar fallout: Tomei needed this to have any shot at a nomination, but she'll probably come up just short. Taraji Henson (Benjamin Button) was snubbed by the Globes, but she'll get a nomination, replacing either Adams or Winslet. Rosemarie Dewitt (Rachel Getting Married) missing out was a slight snub that could be rectified come the Academy Awards. But the real story is Viola Davis, whose 10 minutes in Doubt is simply incredible. She's extremely deserving of this nomination and will mostly likely grab all the hardware this year.
Best Director
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Steven Daldry, The Reader
David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Should win: Sam Mendes, Revolutionary Road
Will win: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
Oscar fallout: Boyle, Fincher, and Mendes are now all Oscar locks. Howard is a probable. The last slot will be filled by a wildcard of Daldry, Van Sant (Milk), or Aronofsky (The Wrestler). Danny Boyle did great work in Slumdog Millionaire but for my money the best directing was done by Mendes (Jarhead, American Beauty, Road to Perdition). Hopefully The Academy will see it my way too.
Best Original Song
"Down to Earth" -- WALL-E
"Gran Torino" -- Gran Torino
"I Thought I Lost You" -- Bolt
"Once in a Lifetime" -- Cadillac Records
"The Wrestler" -- The Wrestler
Should win: "Down to Earth" from Wall-E
Will win: "Down to Earth" from Wall-E
Oscar fallout: This is always a tough Oscar category. No Dark Knight? Is Slumdog even eligible? I'm going to pass on this one.
Best Original Score
Defiance
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Slumdog Millionaire
Frost/Nixon
Changeling
Should win: Slumdog Millionaire
Will win: Slumdog Millionaire
Oscar fallout: The Dark Knight will get a score nomination, replacing either Changeling or Defiance. Danny Elfman could get a Milk score nomination too. Button and Slumdog are locks.
Best Animated Film
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
Wall-E
Should win: Wall-E
Will win: Wall-E
Oscar fallout: Panda and Wall-E are mortal locks, with Wall-E certain to win the Oscar. The only question is that third slot, which could go to Madagascar: Escape 2 Africa, Bolt, or Tale of Despereaux.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Baader Meinhof Complex
Gomorrah
I've Loved You So Long
Waltz with Bashir
Should win: I've Loved You So Long
Will win: I've Loved You So Long
Oscar fallout: Waltz and I've Loved You So Long are sure things for a nomination.
Best Actor - Musical or Comedy
Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Colin Farrell, In Bruges
James Franco, Pineapple Express
Brendan Gleeson, In Bruges
Dustin Hoffman, Last Chance Harvey
Should win: Colin Farrell, In Bruges
Will win: Javier Bardem, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Oscar fallout: Zero. No one here will be getting a nomination. I was pleased to see Farrell recognized though, his performance was hugely underrated this year.
Best Actress - Musical or Comedy
Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Frances McDormand, Burn After Reading
Meryl Streep, Mamma Mia
Emma Thompson, Last Chance Harvey
Should win: Rebecca Hall, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Will win: Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Oscar fallout: Hawkins has a legitimate shot at an Oscar nomination now. She'd join Streep (Doubt), Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married), Blanchett (Benjamin Button) and Kristin Scott Thomas (I've Loved You So Long). The McDormand nomination is friendly, but flawed.
Best Screenplay
Simon Beaufoy, Slumdog Millionaire
David Hare, The Reader
Peter Morgan, Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Should win: John Patrick Shanley, Doubt
Will win: Frost/Nixon will get paid off here ... because it won't be winning anything else.
Oscar fallout: The Academy breaks this category into adapted versus original categories, so they'll be another five to get nominations besides these. I'd say Original Screenplay will be The Wrestler, Gran Torino, Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Che, and The Visitor. Adapted will be Slumdog Millionaire, Frost.Nixon, Revolutionary Road, Doubt, and Benjamin Button.The Reader will be a moderate snub come Oscar season, as will Charlie Kaufman for Synechdoche, New York.
