For years now, Hollywood has told us that high-definition video is the future and that one of the dueling formats, either HD-DVD or Blu-ray, would come out ahead as the new way to watch movies. Many of us were skeptical. We read the reports that compared the war to the VHS-Beta battle of the early '80s. Many of us were still even more skeptical. And then when HD-DVD folded and Blu-ray won out, the commercials began to tell us that this was the future of movies.

Overeager forecasters projected that, according to the previous year's sales, Blu-ray sales and rentals would overtake DVD in 2012. And then those of us who were still skeptical laughed, not only because we saw Blu-ray as an intermediary step, but because financial forecasts like that never hold. Because, you know, you never can tell when a stray recession might rear its ugly head.

Well, now we're hip deep in economic downturn, or as I like to call it OHCRAPOHCRAPOHCRAP, and Blu-ray looks like it has hit two serious stumbling blocks. The first is obvious: people have less money. And those of us that do still have disposable income have been saving it rather than spending it, insuring ourselves against a possible downsizing or economic collapse. After all, when financial ruin comes, what good will a stack of Friday the 13th Blu-rays be? And while one can argue that it's exactly that kind of panic that is extending rather than correcting the recession, that is for another time and another Web site. With the numbers as they are, Blu-ray will NOT overtake DVD in 2012.

The second problem is Netflix. Once just a purveyor of through-the-mail DVDs, Netflix recently unveiled its new video streaming service, a FREE addition to its normal rental offerings -- all you need is an XBox 360 to use it. Short of an XBox? No problem. They've also recently released a $99 box with built-in WI-FI (if you don't want to run cables across your house) that accesses Netflix's online system. What does it do? As of today, there are over 12,000 titles available for instant streaming, meaning that if you want to see a title on their list, you can push a button and be watching it. Now. And many of those titles are also available in HD. All you have to do is subscribe to one of their monthly programs costing about $9 or more.

You see the problem? Given the choice between a $300 player with $50 discs or a $99 player with a $9 monthly fee, which would you choose? Which do you think struggling families will choose when making the choice for an entertainment purchase? The introduction of new technology at such a low price point could prove seriously detrimental to Blu-ray, especially since the target market is the same for both with one slight difference. People like my parents were never going to trade up to Blu-ray unless they had to (as in they couldn't find DVDs in the stores). They will, however, consider one of these new boxes.

That's not to say that Blu-ray isn't going to be around for a while longer and that it isn't a good format. It's a great format with an image that movie lovers tend to go gaga over. There are many Blu-ray lovers not ready to let go of their players just yet, and they'll certainly be part of the fight to keep it alive.

But when all is said and done, all that Blu-ray has to offer is better image and sound, and maybe all those extras that unscrupulous execs have decided to hold hostage for the better format (shame shame). In an economy like this one in which the forecast gets worse every time we turn on the TV or boot up our computers, well, you're gonna need a lot more than that to convince struggling families to switch over.

At the end of the day, this downturn might be the worst thing that ever happened to Blu-ray. And the best thing to ever happen to Netflix.

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