When Laremy asked me to pick this year's most likely candidates for Best Picture, I looked at him with a blank, Homer-esque expression (which is really odd because he asked me via email). Unless I blacked out, it is still July (right?) and the Oscar nominations aren't going to be announced until next year. But my grandma taught me this expression, which you all have my permission to use, royalty free. And it goes like this: the early bird gets the worm. My eagle-sharp eyes have taken dead aim on this baby, so let's delve in.

I predict the following five films will be nominated for Best Picture:

Charlie Wilson's War
Directed by: Mike Nichols
Starring: Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Emily Blunt, Amy Adams,
Synopsis: Charlie Wilson is a Texas congressman who is recruited by the CIA to assist Afghanistan in fighting the Soviet Union. The film also focuses on the blowback from this victory which led to empowering terrorists like Osama bin Laden.

It isn't all that hard to predict Oscar contenders. About 90% of it is picking based on pedigree and this movie comes from solid breeding. The other 10% is mixing that with a lot of hot air.

This flick not only stars Oscar winners Tom Hanks, Julia Roberts and Philip Seymour Hoffman, it's directed by Mike Nichols (The Graduate, Closer) and written by Aaron Sorkin (The West Wing, A Few Good Men). On top of that, the film's subject matter is sure to generate fireworks. Of all the movies on this list, this is the one I'd be most shocked by if it didn't garner a nom.

In The Valley of Elah
Directed by: Paul Haggis
Starring: Tommy Lee Jones, Susan Sarandon, Charlize Theron, Jason Patric, Josh Brolin, Jonathan Tucker
Synopsis: A soldier returns from Iraq and then mysteriously disappears. His parents enlist the aid of a police detective who investigates his disappearance.

Expectations on this movie are high and you can expect nominations for Jones and Sarandon (as the parents), possibly a supporting nod for Theron (as the detective). This marks the return of the ever-polarizing Paul Haggis, his first directorial feature since Crash.

No Country for Old Men
Directed by: Joel & Ethan Coen
Starring: Tommy Lee Jones, Josh Brolin, Javier Bardem, Woody Harrelson, Kelly McDonald
Synopsis: A drug deal goes badly near the Mexican-American border and afterwards a man passing through finds massive quantities of drugs and cash. It isn't long that he's become a hunted man and the death toll rises.

This is where things get dicey. The Coens aren't exactly Oscar bait but there were more than a few peaved critics when this movie didn't win the Palm d'Or at Cannes this past summer. It's a thriller which doesn't easily translate into Oscar status but Fargo wasn't a conventional Oscar film either. I'm a gambling man and this is looking like a pretty good risk.

American Gangster
Directed by: Ridley Scott
Starring: Denzel Washington, Russell Crowe, Josh Brolin, Carla Gugino, Cuba Gooding Jr., Chiwetal Ejiofor
Synopsis: This is the true story of '70s drug lord Frank Lucas and the detective who brought his empire down.

I expect this one to be a critical and financial hit when it's released and it might be the highest grossing Best Picture nominee when all is said and done. Ridley Scott directing adds legitimacy to the project and Steven Zallian, who penned the screenplay, isn't exactly a slouch either.

There Will Be Blood
Directed by: Paul Thomas Anderson
Starring: Daniel Day-Lewis, Ciaran Hinds
Synopsis: Based partly on the Upton Sinclair novel, Oil!, the film examines capitalism, greed, social and religious structures through a turn-of-the-century oil tycoon and a young, pubescent preacher.

Here at Camp Rivas, we don't back down from risks. I could have gone with the obvious in Lions for Lambs but that might be one too many Middle East movies for the Oscars (plus, that teaser trailer is a perfect example of terrible and confused marketing). Atonement also was just shy of the cut but I'm banking on the possibility of it becoming another Pride and Prejudice ... respected but lost in the competitive Oscar season. Now I'm slightly biased here because I think Paul Thomas Anderson is one of the greatest directors working today. But the combination of Anderson and the reliably great Daniel Day is too much excitement for me to contain.

Am I sleeping on another would be contender? Leave a comment below to voice your picks.

Recommend (0)

|  Comments (0)

|  Email

|  Share

Share  Facebook Digg del.icio.us