Word came down last week that Grindhouse will be weighing in at 185 bulky minutes. This was something of a shock to an industry that's used to a two-hour maximum where horror is concerned, and it makes the future prospects for Grindhouse cloudy at best. As we get closer to the film’s April 6th release date, I figured I’d chime in on how I see this film resonating both financially and culturally.

Dre wrote about what the Grindhouse was, two films back to back in the '70s that featured healthy doses of sex and violence. This Grindhouse pays homage to that place in time. Quentin Tarantino and Robert Rodriguez have split directing duties into what seems to be two separate 86-minute films. Thirteen minutes of fake trailers, four of them in total, will be shown in between the two mini-movies. The rumor has started that one of the trailers will be made into a movie too. The problem? Eighty-six minutes is a feature film all by itself in this day and age. Look at the most recent horror film released, The Hills Have Eyes II, clocking in at only 89 minutes (including end credits). Okay, you got me, that movie was crushed both critically and at the box office, so I’ll retract it from the record. Grindhouse deserves a better barometer than that.

Nonetheless Quentin and Robert will be fighting against the history they are so avidly seeking to respect with this project. No successful modern horror/thriller film has stretched passed The Shining’s 143 minutes in the past 40 years. Check out this list:

Psycho: 109 minutes
Alien: 117 minutes
Aliens: 137 minutes
Jaws: 124 minutes
The Exorcist: 122 minutes
Rosemary’s Baby: 136 minutes
The Thing: 109 minutes
The Texas Chain Saw Massacre: 83 minutes
Friday the 13th: 95 minutes
A Nightmare on Elm Street: 91 minutes

The reason for the overall brevity within the genre is simple. Horror, in general, doesn’t require a very detailed plot. Sure, most of the above listed have a decent story, that’s why they’re classics, but none of them would be confused with Gone With the Wind. Dances with Wolves was 180 minutes, and people prattled endlessly on about how long it was. You get the idea.

That leaves no historical precedent for a horror movie stretching three hours and living to tell about it. Quentin and Robert may very well be the only two guys in Hollywood who could have even gotten this made because the box office forecast is menacing. Consider last weekend’s winner, TMNT. It’s an 87-minute film that made $26 million at the box office. If Grindhouse enters the ring with half as many show times and an R rating, how will it do? Not well, my friends, not well. So I can safely say that while Grindhouse may somehow squeak out the weekend (against The Reaping and Firehouse Dog), it will be hard pressed to make $80 million domestically. The giant wildcard is how many theaters will choose to show Grindhouse. It was originally rumored to be straddling the NC-17 line, which may turn some theater chains off.

Culturally we've got a whole different ballgame. Quentin is significant already; he could make a film about flying kites and people would at least talk about it. Neither of the Kill Bill series cracked $80m, but people have an awareness of them and DVD sales were brisk. Likewise Robert Rodriguez' most successful box office work is Spy Kids, but people instead know him for Sin City. The bad news is that Grindhouse isn't currently among the Yahoo top 20 trailers, a bad sign for a movie coming off some SXSW buzz.

With all these mixed messages I can only hazard a guess (as far as cultural significance) as to how this will all play out. Grindhouse has a pretty big internet interest level, mostly because there are oodles of horror/thriller sites where people congregate. This chatter is throwing off a false read to us media critic types, and when the reviews and the box office numbers start rolling in an inevitable backlash will follow. Traditional media, always looking to king-make or tear down come Monday morning, will rely on that buzz plus the opening weekend box office. If Grindhouse scores the top slot, Tarantino will again be lauded for his bold path. If it stumbles and something like Firehouse Dog beats it (a true horror), then the headlines will go the other way, something to the effect of "Tarantino's Bloated Monster Struggles."

Either way you've got to admire the boys for trying. A three-hour horror film might not be bankable or critically beloved, but the guys did what they wanted to do. Tragically, this homage looks like it will prove a little too faithful; instead of taking people back, it will reinforce to folks why they moved past the method in the first place. Sadly, life moves faster these days.

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