99.8%. According to my very scientific calculations.

At age 44, Robert Downey Jr. has at least another 50 years to bring home a golden boy. Or more, considering we're one kidney away from regenerate-on-demand organs and spray-and-grow appendages. How long before our brains can simply slip into a new, younger body clone when the old model requires too many repairs? As long as humanity doesn't suffer any savage I-Am-Legend-like side effects.

So to estimate RDJ's Oscar odds I propose the following formula: Past + present + movie mojo = prediction of future.

Note that attention will also be paid to variables of thespian track record (quality, range, consistency) and ability to make smart film choices -- for example, The Wrestler ... good, Wild Orchid ... bad.

As early as his coming-of-age Brat Pack phase in the '80s -- Weird Science, Johnny Be Good, etc. -- it was clear that beyond the boyish bravado and reckless charm, Robert was an Oscar contender. His heartbreaking turn as a flip yet fragile addict trying to defy the downward spiral destroying his yuppie youth in Less Than Zero garnered critical acclaim in '87 when Downey was still in his early 20s, enabling RDJ to spread his Hollywood wings and challenge his comic timing in blockbusters like Soap Dish, alongside A-listers like Kevin Kline and Sally Fields. He continued to test his dramatic talents in edgier landscapes -- as the crime-chasing TV host of American Maniacs in Natural Born Killers and as the legendary "Little Tramp" Charlie Chaplin, which was a tour de force performance that brought him a best actor Oscar nom in 1993.

Whatever the genre, however superb or so-so the film, Robert regularly proved his on-screen skill and appeal to both audiences and critics. Masterfully serving up complex, flawed, poignant, funny characters that were easily captivating and difficult not to applaud, an Academy Award appeared well within Downey's reach until his real-life substance abuse steered him towards a career detour of drug-related arrests and revolving-door treatment programs (between 1996 and 2001). The detour ended his Golden Globe-winning, boob-tube romance with Ally McBeal (as her Chances Are-crooning lawyer love).

Fortunately, after some struggle, sobriety finally stuck, and like a phoenix from the ashes (or Tony Stark from an Afghan terrorist's cave), RDJ rose again to successful roles in the Chandler-esque comedy noir Kiss Kiss Bang Bang (as Harry Lockhart) and Zodiac (as alcoholic ace reporter Paul Avery). And then he rocketed his way back into the box-office-star stratosphere with his devilishly disarming incarnation of bad-boy genius Tony Stark/Iron Man in 2008. On a roll again (or continuing where he left off), Downey recently earned a 2009 Best Supporting Actor Oscar nom for his virtuosic actor-within-an-actor-within-an-actor riff in Tropic Thunder.

Next up on RDJ's slate is a feel-good, skid-row-to-concert-hall fairytale about a schizophrenic musician rescued by a journalist: The Soloist. (Its trailer suggests a tearjerker with definite Academy-Award potential.) Plus: There's more superhero 'tude to come, with Iron Man 2 and The Avengers.

Is there really any doubt that Downey will nab one measly Oscar in his lifetime, as a daring, discerning, chameleon artist with thespian chops and charisma of a caliber far above most?

Just 0.2 %.

Now you decide ...

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